Post by HH on Nov 27, 2015 22:25:39 GMT
Innhaldet er hentet fra Secular investor
Enkelte hevdar at dersom det amerikanske rentenivået blir heva, vil dette slå negativt ut for gullprisen. Dette har Secular Investor forsøkt å analysere ved å gå gjennom samanhengen mellom renteauke og gullprisen, og dei konkluderer med følgjande:
"That being said, how can any serious person conclude that gold will, without any doubt, trade lower in the next interest rate cycle? Statistically, we just proved that it was the case in only 2 of the 7 instances.
Moreover, the two periods in which gold was negatively impacted by interest rate hikes happened after a period of exceptionally high inflation.
When the economy was booming while disinflationary, gold remained flat with interest rate hikes. A well chosen entry point in a gold investment gave a very interesting yield.
That brings us to today. If the Fed is going to engage in a new interest rate cycle, they will do so to control rising inflation.
As we are exiting a period of exceptionally low interest rates with a moderate economic growth, present times are comparable to the time period 2004 to 2006.
As interest rates rose during those years, the price of gold followed that path higher as of the moment the Fed engaged in a monthly rate hike. During the last phase of rate hikes, gold started to rise even exponentially"
(Kommentar; Det kan verke som om Secular investor ikkje er nyansert i sitt syn på gull, ber derfor lesarane om å vere kritiske)
Enkelte hevdar at dersom det amerikanske rentenivået blir heva, vil dette slå negativt ut for gullprisen. Dette har Secular Investor forsøkt å analysere ved å gå gjennom samanhengen mellom renteauke og gullprisen, og dei konkluderer med følgjande:
"That being said, how can any serious person conclude that gold will, without any doubt, trade lower in the next interest rate cycle? Statistically, we just proved that it was the case in only 2 of the 7 instances.
Moreover, the two periods in which gold was negatively impacted by interest rate hikes happened after a period of exceptionally high inflation.
When the economy was booming while disinflationary, gold remained flat with interest rate hikes. A well chosen entry point in a gold investment gave a very interesting yield.
That brings us to today. If the Fed is going to engage in a new interest rate cycle, they will do so to control rising inflation.
As we are exiting a period of exceptionally low interest rates with a moderate economic growth, present times are comparable to the time period 2004 to 2006.
As interest rates rose during those years, the price of gold followed that path higher as of the moment the Fed engaged in a monthly rate hike. During the last phase of rate hikes, gold started to rise even exponentially"
(Kommentar; Det kan verke som om Secular investor ikkje er nyansert i sitt syn på gull, ber derfor lesarane om å vere kritiske)