Post by pling on Feb 25, 2016 17:39:27 GMT
Fra pv-tech.org 25. februar 2016
Malaysia PV CellTech conference to reveal long-term polysilicon demand metrics for PV industry
- The forthcoming PV CellTech conference in Malaysia, 16-17 March 2016, is poised to unveil the key issues that will underpin c-Si solar cell manufacturing over the next few years.
- Top of this list is probably how this will ultimately impact on silicon consumption levels across the industry, and the consequences on polysilicon capacity and production levels that will be required.
- Aside from end-market demand, and the split between c-Si and thin-film module supply, polysilicon suppliers are directly impacted by a host of issues at the cell manufacturing stage, including the balance of mono and multi (on p-type), efficiency increases, and wafer thicknesses.
- Each of these drives down g/W silicon consumption levels, ultimately decreasing the quantity of polysilicon needed by the industry as a whole.
- While every polysilicon supplier has been drastically affected by the speed at which average selling prices (ASPs) have declined, this segment of the upstream has actually benefitted from a period of prolonged under-investment in cell manufacturing, preventing the g/W consumption from falling at a faster rate.
- The graph below starts to shed light on why the time has now come for polysilicon makers to refocus on what is happening at the cell stage. The figure shows the capex (capital expenditure) from the top-50 PV manufacturers to the PV industry over the period 2013 to 2016, taken from the newly released "PV Manufacturing & Technology Quarterly" report from PV Tech’s parent company’s research arm.
Source: Solar Intelligence, part of Solar Media Ltd., “PV Manufacturing & Technology Quarterly” report, March 2016 release.
- Several of the leading polysilicon suppliers to the PV industry appear to still be working with projections for c-Si consumption rates at the nominal figure of 5g/W out to 2017, something that could have a profound impact on supply/demand dynamics shortly.
- And let’s not forget SolarCity’s former Silevo aspirations of GW level production using thin n-type wafers, coupled with SunPower’s latest g/W reductions that have now decreased by more than 10% in the past twelve months to record lows of 3.4g/W. It should also be noted that SunPower will also be presenting at PV CellTech in March.
- At some point in the next few years, wafer thickness is going to return as a key issue to address by cell manufacturers. To assume the PV industry will still be stuck with p-type wafers at the 180 micron level in 2020 is somewhat naïve. Wafer thickness reduction is a massive deal for cell manufacturing and has simply been put on hold in the past 5-6 years as poly pricing fell and cash for upstream capex was taken off the agenda by most of Asia.
- The need to understand cell manufacturing trends by the leading producers has never been more pertinent, with the outcomes from PV CellTech during 16-17 March 2016 in Malaysia potentially forming the most compelling inputs into how the PV technology roadmap is really going to progress over the next few years, and will likely provide the real metrics needed across the polysilicon supply side for long-term strategic planning.
Malaysia PV CellTech conference to reveal long-term polysilicon demand metrics for PV industry
- The forthcoming PV CellTech conference in Malaysia, 16-17 March 2016, is poised to unveil the key issues that will underpin c-Si solar cell manufacturing over the next few years.
- Top of this list is probably how this will ultimately impact on silicon consumption levels across the industry, and the consequences on polysilicon capacity and production levels that will be required.
- Aside from end-market demand, and the split between c-Si and thin-film module supply, polysilicon suppliers are directly impacted by a host of issues at the cell manufacturing stage, including the balance of mono and multi (on p-type), efficiency increases, and wafer thicknesses.
- Each of these drives down g/W silicon consumption levels, ultimately decreasing the quantity of polysilicon needed by the industry as a whole.
- While every polysilicon supplier has been drastically affected by the speed at which average selling prices (ASPs) have declined, this segment of the upstream has actually benefitted from a period of prolonged under-investment in cell manufacturing, preventing the g/W consumption from falling at a faster rate.
- The graph below starts to shed light on why the time has now come for polysilicon makers to refocus on what is happening at the cell stage. The figure shows the capex (capital expenditure) from the top-50 PV manufacturers to the PV industry over the period 2013 to 2016, taken from the newly released "PV Manufacturing & Technology Quarterly" report from PV Tech’s parent company’s research arm.
Source: Solar Intelligence, part of Solar Media Ltd., “PV Manufacturing & Technology Quarterly” report, March 2016 release.
- Several of the leading polysilicon suppliers to the PV industry appear to still be working with projections for c-Si consumption rates at the nominal figure of 5g/W out to 2017, something that could have a profound impact on supply/demand dynamics shortly.
- And let’s not forget SolarCity’s former Silevo aspirations of GW level production using thin n-type wafers, coupled with SunPower’s latest g/W reductions that have now decreased by more than 10% in the past twelve months to record lows of 3.4g/W. It should also be noted that SunPower will also be presenting at PV CellTech in March.
- At some point in the next few years, wafer thickness is going to return as a key issue to address by cell manufacturers. To assume the PV industry will still be stuck with p-type wafers at the 180 micron level in 2020 is somewhat naïve. Wafer thickness reduction is a massive deal for cell manufacturing and has simply been put on hold in the past 5-6 years as poly pricing fell and cash for upstream capex was taken off the agenda by most of Asia.
- The need to understand cell manufacturing trends by the leading producers has never been more pertinent, with the outcomes from PV CellTech during 16-17 March 2016 in Malaysia potentially forming the most compelling inputs into how the PV technology roadmap is really going to progress over the next few years, and will likely provide the real metrics needed across the polysilicon supply side for long-term strategic planning.